MONTE CARLO SIMULATOR

Same skill. Different bet size. One survives, one blows up.

Three traders, 10,000 parallel universes each. Drag the sliders and watch how position size — not win rate — decides who survives. The numbers are real, computed live in your browser.

Parameters

Win rate (edge)55%

Kamikaze risk / trade16%

Reward : Risk1.0

Number of trades1000

Live preview: 2,000 runs · click for full 10,000

Try these

Kamikaze blew up

—

same edge, big bets

Kamikaze median

—

looks like a winner

Ended in profit

—

survivors you see online

Drag a slider to run the simulation…

120 random lives, side by side

Each line is one trader's account over time (log scale). Coin flip drifts. Disciplined edge climbs steadily. Kamikaze splits in two — moonshots and zeros.

Where the kamikaze accounts end up

Distribution of final balances (log scale). A wall on the floor (blown up) and a long tail to the moon. Almost nothing in the middle.

The cliff: same edge, rising bet size

Median outcome vs risk per trade, holding the edge fixed. It climbs, peaks around 10%, then falls off a cliff — even though every trade still has positive expectancy.

Trade on Bybit

Low fees · Up to $30,000 bonus

OKX

Trade on OKX

Top 3 exchange · 300+ coins

TradingView Pro

Pro charts · 100+ indicators

Get $15 OFF →

Same skill. Different bet size. One survives, one blows up.

Free: 5 Risk Rules That Saved My Account